ANZ NZ Truckometer - Hitting the speed limits

HITTING THE SPEED LIMITS

Key Points

· The ANZ Heavy Traffic Index rose 4% in November, more than recovering falls in the previous two months. The index continues to trend upward. The Light Traffic Index rose 1.7%, recovering much of its October fall (the charts below are a 3-month average).

· It is notable that the Heavy Traffic Index is trucking along, albeit with volatility, but the upward trend in the Light Traffic Index, which leads the economy by six months, has flattened out.

· Firms report that the availability of labour is restraining growth, and credit is also becoming a constraint. Given the economy’s speed limits, it would not be at all surprising or concerning to see growth moderate over the next six months.