ANZ NZ Truckometer

KEY POINTS

•Both the Heavy Traffic Index and the Light Traffic Index fell in May. We must be wary of reading too much into one month of data, particularly given extreme volatility of late, but it is probably fair to say the upward trend is no longer as conclusive as it was.

•The Heavy Traffic Index[1] fell 1.7% (+0.6% 3m/3m) in May, while the Light Traffic Index[2], which leads growth in the economy by six months, fell 1.3% (+1.3% 3m/3m).

•Two consecutive falls so far in Q2 in the Heavy Traffic Index do not, on the face of it, bode particularly well for economic activity in the current quarter.

•The strong upward trend in the Light Traffic Index appears to have turned. This bears watching too, though it is worth noting that the levels and annual growth in the index remain very strong, reflecting a period of surprisingly strong momentum in the economy.