ANZ Truckometer - Back on track
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Key Points
· A solid 6.7% bounce in the Heavy Traffic Index in August has put the upward trend in the ANZ Truckometer Heavy Traffic Index back on track. The Light Traffic Index lifted 1%, remaining strong.
· The bounce-back in the Heavy Traffic Index confirms that we were right not to read too much into the recent pothole. The recent volatility in the index perhaps reflects the fact that parts of the economy, such as construction, are running full speed ahead, while others, such as agriculture, are more of a mixed bag.
· Turning to the detail: the Heavy Traffic Index[1] rose 6.7% m/m (+1.7% m/m on a 3-month rolling average basis – levels charted below) in August. The Light Traffic Index[2], which broadly leads growth in the economy by six months, rose 1.0% m/m (+1.0% m/m, 3-month average).
[1] The ANZ Heavy Traffic Index comprises flows of vehicles weighing more than 3.5 tonnes (primarily trucks) on 11 selected roads around NZ. It is contemporaneous with GDP growth. Because of monthly volatility we have started charting the 3-month average to make the signal clearer.
[2] The ANZ Light Traffic Index is made up of light or total traffic flows (primarily cars and vans) on 10 selected roads around the country. It gives a six month lead on GDP growth in normal circumstances.
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